Chuong H Nguyen:
Almost three weeks since it has launched, iOS 8 adoption currently sits at 47%, identical to the current share of its predecessor, iOS 7. That’s a change of only 1% over the course of the last couple of weeks. iOS 7, by contrast, is believed to have hit over 60% adoption by this time last year.
There are lots of factors at play here.
There are a ton of iPhone 4 users still out there; the phone was still for sale this year in some countries.
The iOS 8 OTA update is huge, and many users don’t know how — or have the desire to — clear space on their devices. It’s insane that 8 and 16 GB iPhones are still a thing.
I think the shock of iOS 7 (what I have named the OMG I UPDATED MY PHONE AND EVERYTHING IS DIFFERENT syndrome) is a factor as well. While iOS 8 is not drastically different to operate, the users who were surprised by iOS 7’s well-known UI changes are just the ones to be afraid of it happening again.
The cynic in me, of course, fears that Apple’s reputation has already been damaged. Here’s what I wrote just a few days ago:
Microsoft and Google both have trouble getting users onto the newest versions of their software platforms, which Apple pokes fun of in keynotes on a regular basis. A few more bad releases and Cupertino could be in the same place, which is bad for the company and third-party developers.
Time will tell if iOS 8 is the beginning of this story. I sure hope it isn’t, but I’ve got a bad feeling about this.