As the news of Apple’s withdraw from Macworld settles in on the Macintosh user community, the news that Steve Jobs won’t be holding the company’s last Macworld keynote still has a lot of people wondering about the health of Apple and of Jobs himself. While some believe Jobs has fallen ill and the company scrambled to figure out what to do, the general consensus is that this is the beginning of a long, gradual transfer of power and public face time from Jobs to other members of Apple’s core leadership group.
A transition, rather than a hand-off, will prove effective, I believe, for several reasons. Mainly, Apple has to break the idea that so many people hold of “Steve is Apple; Apple is Steve.” This has hurt the company before, an will continue to do so as Steve reaches retirement.
A recent example (and probably most outlandish result of this pretense) is a CNN “iReporter” posted a story that Jobs had been rushed to the hospital after suffering a heart attack. As the news spread, Apple’s stock fell. Afterwards, when the story was proven false, the stock didn’t bounce up too far.
A few weeks before Jobs announced the revamped iPod line in September, rumors of the CEO’s health were running rampant, fueled by the accidental release of Jobs’ obituary by a clumsy news organization. Jobs fired back by having a slide in his keynote saying “The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.” But the damage to the stock was done.
These stories highlight the fact that in a world where investors and customers view the CEO as the driving force in a company, a transition can be a very dangerous thing, but Apple’s figured it out. By transitioning now, they can control it. Pulling out of Macworld lets them control when, how, and where they announce new products; pulling Steve out of Macworld lets them control when, how, and where other executives start taking the stage more and more. If history has taught us anything about Apple, it is that they like control.
In actuality, this transition has been in play for about a year. Jobs has been joined on stage by several other Apple executives over the past year to help demo or announce the iPhone SDK, the iPhone 3G, the new iPods, and (most recently) the new unibody notebooks. Moving the spotlight away from Jobs slowly shows the company is thinking ahead, and doesn’t want to get caught in a situation where Jobs is suddenly unable to perform his role, and no one is there to step up.
Which brings us to Phil Schiller, Apple’s senior vice president of Worldwide Product Marketing. Schiller is no stranger to Apple events. He helped demo OS X for the first time. When Apple released Airport, he jumped off a platform with an accelerometer strapped to an iBook G3 to show how easily data could be sent from an Airport-equipped iBook.
More recently, Apple tapped Schiller to announce the iMac G5, when Jobs was out after surgery related to his pancreatic cancer. While not as polished as Jobs on stage, Schiller is no slouch when it comes to announcing products. (For comparison, here’s Jobs announcing the aluminum iMac.) But when filling Jobs’ shoes, you have to have awfully big feet. Even a great speaker is not as good as an extraordinary speaker. This is the fundamental problem Schiller faces- he may not ever be able to get out from behind Jobs’s shadow.
The other issue is not who, but what. When Schiller gets on stage at Apple’s last Macworld in a week and a half, what will he have to announce? If Schiller announces merely speed bumps and Mini-Display Ports on all Mac desktops, and then walks off stage, people will (unfairly) conclude that without Jobs, Apple isn’t capable of making big announcements. But with the recent updates of the company’s new iPod and notebook lines, there may not be much left to show off in January. (Again, why would Apple want to be tied to releasing something major right after the holiday buying season?)
What Apple (and Schiller) need is a biz-wang, leave-their-mouths-hanging-open Macworld keynote. It reminds Mac fans, investors, an the press that Schiller is more than capable of delivering Steve-like keynotes, and that Apple can and will succeed without their co-founder in the spotlight. But if Macworld 2009 is lackluster, Schiller will have plenty more chances to take the stage.