CNET’s Don Reisinger:
But now, as a new Microsoft operating system starts making its way to store shelves, it’s incumbent upon us to forecast its expected impact. And after downloading the Windows 7 beta and immersing myself in its environment, I think I can say, both as a Mac user (I’m writing this on my iMac) and what some may call an Apple nut (I own just about every Apple product released over the past five years), Windows 7 will not only stymie Mac OS X’s growth, it will push Apple’s market share back down to pre-Vista levels.
[…]
That “satisfaction factor” will enable Windows 7 to capture some of Mac OS X’s market share. For the first time in recent memory, the new Microsoft OS will appeal to consumers who want a better experience, companies that want reliable software without breaking the bank, and vendors that want their customers to be happy. That didn’t happen with Vista, which forced many to switch to Mac OS X, but I think that it will happen with Windows 7.
I like that the guy tries to defend his Apple street cred in the same sentence of saying the Mac’s marketshare is going to shrink because of Windows 7 - no matter how much Apple stuff you own, your predications can still be off the mark.
The thing Don is missing is this simple fact: Very rarely do people switch back to Windows. Almost every switcher stays with the Mac if they make it past the initial weeks of learning a new OS. After that, they wonder how there was a time when they didn’t use the Mac. Effectively, once a Mac user, always a Mac user.
If Windows 7 does well - and I’m pretty sure it will - OS X will benefit. If Microsoft ships a solid OS, then Apple has to make sure OS X is at least as good, if not better. Competition is a good thing. Apple didn’t capitalize on Vista’s failure as much as they could have, sure. But a strong Windows 7 should keep the OS X group at Apple busy. With no real competition, where’s the incentive to push the envelope?
I don’t see people selling their Macs on Craigslist to buy a new Dell when Windows 7 ships.